All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. (VIC)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.796359 - 0.203641RealScores: 97.826069 - 61.408970, Fremantle 83 - 62 Essendon Perth Stadium (WA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683389 - 0.316611RealScores: 83.289485 - 62.274896, Geelong 87 - 59 Melbourne Kardinia Park (Gee)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736103 - 0.263897RealScores: 86.750494 - 58.958046, Gold Coast 91 - 71 Hawthorn Carrara (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.681157 - 0.318843RealScores: 91.256182 - 70.515729, St Kilda 79 - 77 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.503125 - 0.496875RealScores: 78.533371 - 77.244922, Sydney 106 - 57 West Coast S.C.G. What will it be used to discuss? Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.591996 - 0.408004RealScores: 83.263665 - 71.065187, Western Bulldogs 88 - 80 Brisbane Lions Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558373 - 0.441627RealScores: 88.368537 - 80.007390, Adelaide 70 - 71 Fremantle Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 70.455578 - 71.121816, Brisbane Lions 83 - 80 Collingwood Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512448 - 0.487552RealScores: 83.338812 - 80.401463, Essendon 81 - 73 Greater Western Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562286 - 0.437714RealScores: 81.469305 - 73.175561, Geelong 100 - 58 Hawthorn M.C.G. No really hot takes this year, and it's going to be a tough one after an unusual 2020. Two factors can cause unusual chart movement: Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. They seem to surprise us at the most unexpected of times. NRL ladder predictor Fox Sports Lab. It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season. The best time of the year is just around the corner and rugby league fans simply cannot wait. General reasons that have lead to this include players simply not wanting to stay in New Zealand, as well as COVID-19 remaining a pain. NRL 2022 ladder prediction: 4-3 Sacred garments and fashion faux pas: The 2022 NRL jersey review NRL NEWS: Croker shocker as Ricky drops Raiders legend, Dragons Origin star set to miss Round 1 You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page. A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!? (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527878 - 0.472122RealScores: 78.608354 - 73.579201, West Coast 78 - 80 Adelaide Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 77.775523 - 79.760487, Collingwood 88 - 76 Brisbane Lions M.C.G. He had 6 of the Top 8, missing Sydney & Essendon for Richmond & St Kilda, and half the Top 4. There is no huge reason why they will improve, and Adam OBrien is a big contender for the first coach to get the axe in 2023. If youre after great odds on every NRL match try signing up for PlayUp. One of the largest headlines throughout the season was the Kalyn Ponga and Kurt Mann toilet cubicle incident. Its not hard to predict the Warriors having another poor season, but who knows? This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading Our data driven model will give you predictions across each and every round. Pld Pls. How are the year's starting values calculated? Of the 26 experts and models Ive tracked for three consecutive years, Peter has the best record, averaging 65.03 points across that period. Teams in the upper-right do both. All the Squiggle goodies are now updated to support the new season: Heading into 2021, there was a bit of hive mind syndrome going around: You can order 18 teams in 6.4 quadrillion different ways, but after reviewing a whole lot of 2021 ladder predictions, I see we're all picking the same 3 or 4. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564205 - 0.435795RealScores: 80.601317 - 71.586238, Port Adelaide 87 - 71 Adelaide Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620896 - 0.379104RealScores: 86.660301 - 71.024323, St Kilda 83 - 71 Essendon M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.468289 - 0.531711RealScores: 78.946682 - 83.175005, Gold Coast 79 - 80 Collingwood Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495626 - 0.504374RealScores: 78.758063 - 80.255350, Hawthorn 69 - 90 Carlton M.C.G. 2023 NRL Fantasy mock. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 85.821895 - 84.645776, St Kilda 70 - 62 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.535371 - 0.464629RealScores: 69.583561 - 61.685266, Adelaide 78 - 97 Richmond Adelaide Oval (SA)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.359511 - 0.640489RealScores: 77.857833 - 96.911825, Brisbane Lions 80 - 79 Melbourne Gabba (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 79.679260 - 78.695137, Carlton 67 - 85 Geelong M.C.G. JavaScript is disabled. them to 10 points is eight times as good. (You can flip ten heads in a row, if youre willing to toss coins for a few hours, and people will think youre a magician.). in a negative direction. Generated: Mon Feb 27 09:55:07 2023 (R0) Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.. At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564521 - 0.435479RealScores: 82.495919 - 74.895659, Fremantle 80 - 61 Hawthorn Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663853 - 0.336147RealScores: 79.648495 - 60.687924, Geelong 110 - 49 Adelaide Kardinia Park (Gee)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.918413 - 0.081587RealScores: 110.449341 - 49.456368, Gold Coast 75 - 79 Melbourne Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469605 - 0.530395RealScores: 74.934122 - 78.940834, Greater Western Sydney 70 - 83 Western Bulldogs Manuka Oval (NSW)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384898 - 0.615102RealScores: 69.654410 - 82.853712, North Melbourne 62 - 90 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.268784 - 0.731216RealScores: 62.496497 - 90.167454, Port Adelaide 92 - 70 Essendon Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686948 - 0.313052RealScores: 91.979631 - 70.142056, Richmond 115 - 59 West Coast M.C.G. Chief among them: We are not actually achieving much equalization when we focus on the 6-6-6 system which is obviously flawed and often produces the opposite effect while ignoring systemic, completely predictable imbalances, such as: To be fair, the fixture-makers do seem to be aware of most of the above, and I think they make some effort to avoid any of them becoming too egregious. team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Katoa and Walsh were both suppose to be franchise players, however, we all knew that a return to the Broncos was in the back of the young guns mind. (NSW)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.870786 - 0.129214RealScores: 105.781291 - 56.739693, Adelaide 94 - 68 North Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.718842 - 0.281158RealScores: 93.709318 - 68.147159, Brisbane Lions 91 - 89 Richmond Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508704 - 0.491296RealScores: 90.748579 - 88.823746, Essendon 79 - 83 Port Adelaide M.C.G. reward a team for having a good defence when in reality less than predicted, or records an upset winit will generally move in Updated in real-time during matches. He certainly impressed and this is a good buy for the Knights. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when. Overall, Adelaide did well out of the 2022 fixture which, as a bottom-6 team, was at least to plan. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Sea Eagles, Roosters, Knights, Sharks, Bulldogs, Eels, Rabbitohs and Cowboys in my bottom eight. (NSW), Richmond 85 - 84 Collingwood M.C.G. and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping They ignore the fixture, home ground advantage, and all the other factors that go into predicting the outcome of a match or a season. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 83.689220 - 80.548768, Melbourne 81 - 73 Western Bulldogs M.C.G. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct: Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct. Anywhere between there is a logjam. replaying the last few decades. Flagpole. Register today. less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations. Load a past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games GWS also had four finalists in its five double-up games, and its fifth opponent was Carlton, who missed finals by a point. Home advantage is important, but not that important. Despite the continuous heartbreak for Warriors fans, their side were in the spotlight of one of the best feel-good rugby league stories Ive seen in a while. Otherwise, good job! Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. New model Glicko Ratings scored best this year, while as usual all models significantly outperformed the actual ladder. are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. The 2021 nrl ladder is live. Thats an average rank of 8th, making him the only one to outperform Squiggle over the same period. Round 19 has seen members of the nrl.com tipping panel largely stick together. Parenting Styles And Dimensions Questionnaire (Psdq), How To Cancel Centrelink Parenting Payment. Diff. It may It will beat an average human tipper. Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart? For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. A prediction of where each team in the nrl 2021 season will fall. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678583 - 0.321417RealScores: 77.238954 - 56.813117, Richmond 96 - 74 Port Adelaide M.C.G. The success was short-lived, as following those first three, they lost seven of their next eight games. Full statistics updated every round. provide a faster result. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results. Oops! that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. into finals. is, and as a result we have a Squiggle Discord server. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't Squiggle nudged out other models with some optimism on Sydney and pessimism on Port Adelaide, but not enough of the former on Collingwood and not enough of the latter on GWS and the Bulldogs. Sadly, a handful of Warriors players were only on contract until they returned to New Zealand, which meant there were many losses on the roster, such as serious quality players like Reece Walsh, Eliesa Katoa, and Ben Murdoch-Masila. So I began collecting this, and now theres a page to view it. Because what actually happened here the whole reason this stat became popular is that between 2008 and 2016, there was a patch where only two 0-2 teams made finals (Carlton 2013 and Sydney 2014). (VIC)HGA: +1.5 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, St Kilda 70 - 62 Fremantle Docklands (VIC)HGA: +6.7 ptsIns/Outs: +0.0 pts, Algorithm: SQUIGGLE5Tips after Round 0: 0. FAQ Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309105 - 0.690895RealScores: 70.129564 - 93.345657, Geelong 96 - 60 Western Bulldogs Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.779603 - 0.220397RealScores: 95.517851 - 60.298568, Hawthorn 70 - 71 Fremantle M.C.G. Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. Top 8 Finish . Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. I dont see Newcastle going anywhere this season, and a bottom-four finish is almost a lock. . This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. If youre interested in how models predicted the final ladder during the season, head on over to the Ladder Scoreboard. quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season. Honourable Mention: Squiggle (5th in 2019, 20th in 2020, 9th in 2021). Your Ladder Predictions. Instead, it vanishes pretty abruptly. But no-one was close, of course; everyones ladder has a howler or two. the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. Use the top buttons to play through the season. Brisbane broncos, north queensland cowboys the broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder. Here at Squiggle, we value the signal in the noise, even if theres still a lot of noise. finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former. Load a past season: FIXTURE Allow tipping of past games. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 81.347127 - 81.908133, West Coast 84 - 74 North Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579370 - 0.420630RealScores: 83.639922 - 73.979436, Western Bulldogs 90 - 62 Greater Western Sydney Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730821 - 0.269179RealScores: 90.049873 - 62.458249, Adelaide 78 - 85 Gold Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.453053 - 0.546947RealScores: 78.471543 - 84.893969, Essendon 96 - 67 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.735521 - 0.264479RealScores: 95.511258 - 67.125539, Fremantle 76 - 71 Brisbane Lions Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533692 - 0.466308RealScores: 76.084003 - 71.014669, Geelong 100 - 53 Port Adelaide Kardinia Park (Gee)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.851940 - 0.148060RealScores: 99.531650 - 53.289225, Greater Western Sydney 66 - 86 Sydney Sydney Showground (NSW)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.322863 - 0.677137RealScores: 65.564251 - 86.496320, Hawthorn 68 - 89 Collingwood M.C.G. featured alongside some of Australias most prominent sports journalists. (NSW)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547076 - 0.452924RealScores: 82.246200 - 76.661596, West Coast 78 - 85 Essendon Perth Stadium (WA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436944 - 0.563056RealScores: 77.687755 - 84.949042, Essendon 93 - 74 North Melbourne Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660329 - 0.339671RealScores: 92.598682 - 74.429422, Gold Coast 92 - 71 Adelaide Marrara Oval (NT)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686683 - 0.313317RealScores: 92.375346 - 70.990166, Greater Western Sydney 72 - 91 Richmond Sydney Showground (NSW)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.337604 - 0.662396RealScores: 72.378369 - 90.795195, Melbourne 77 - 74 Carlton M.C.G. Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.709180 - 0.290820RealScores: 94.382091 - 69.093130, Fremantle 73 - 69 Western Bulldogs Perth Stadium (WA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521977 - 0.478023RealScores: 72.818631 - 69.407863, Geelong 95 - 59 Sydney Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.781114 - 0.218886RealScores: 94.994408 - 59.354255, Gold Coast 102 - 64 North Melbourne Carrara (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.793231 - 0.206769RealScores: 101.970849 - 64.418860, Greater Western Sydney 71 - 86 Brisbane Lions Manuka Oval (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.373371 - 0.626629RealScores: 71.422093 - 86.368068, Hawthorn 84 - 75 Adelaide York Park (TAS)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.572681 - 0.427319RealScores: 84.181844 - 75.364466, Melbourne 83 - 80 Richmond M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.537507 - 0.462493RealScores: 80.669251 - 72.524146, North Melbourne 84 - 73 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561304 - 0.438696RealScores: 84.279873 - 73.339484, Port Adelaide 84 - 80 Brisbane Lions Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 83.528952 - 80.280506, Richmond 86 - 85 Carlton M.C.G. Geelong 86 - 65 Collingwood M.C.G. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. range of likely finishes shrinks. Gamify engagement Capture first-party fan data and maximise monetisation opportunities with gamification. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards. vs real-life results. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people. This particular addition was triggered by Jake, who emailed me to say hed been in iso for a month, and he kept busy by re-entering past seasons into the predictor one game at a time to see how the ladder changed. If you want more rugby league content like, subscribe and comment! Massive thank you for 50 subscribers!!! FOX SPORTS LAB PREDICTED LADDER. For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death. Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? So now you can. Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm. Here is Squiggle's prediction for 2021. Tex Hoy and Phoenix Crossland were given a chance in the halves when they came up against North Queensland in Round 9, as Clune was dropped, while Clifford had suffered a minor injury. Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. I've got no idea how we came secondI might be more biased than I thought. only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from Parramatta halves coach andrew johns admits the whole club is under pressure. To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it. The 2021 nrl ladder is live. Generated: Sat Sep 25 21:51:04 2021 (R27) Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.. At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Reset Week Randomize Week DIV CONF Do you us? 3rd Test - India v Australia - 1-5 Mar, Indore, 2022 Grand Final - Sydney - Geelong - Saturday 24 Sep - 2:30pm @ MCG, QF: Demons v Swans - 2 Sep 2022 - 7:50pm - MCG. Australia's #1 independent NRL news source. Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. Injuries & Suspensions. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650495 - 0.349505RealScores: 87.266159 - 66.919137, Essendon 80 - 88 Gold Coast Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445136 - 0.554864RealScores: 79.563796 - 88.297720, Fremantle 90 - 54 North Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.761664 - 0.238336RealScores: 90.159267 - 53.703514, Sydney 94 - 67 Hawthorn S.C.G. Its not: a 17-round fixture (or 34 rounds) wont stop teams selling games, or being shifted to the MCG to face Richmond and Collingwood, or being sent to country Victoria; or, for that matter, being lucky enough to play a team when they have a bunch of outs versus when they dont. Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include: Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to This tool is hugely useful at the tail end of the season. Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. Teams with smaller fan bases generate less home advantage. (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589371 - 0.410629RealScores: 86.182656 - 75.718267, West Coast 70 - 104 Richmond Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.218626 - 0.781374RealScores: 70.025580 - 104.412032, Brisbane Lions 71 - 90 Geelong Gabba (QLD)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328449 - 0.671551RealScores: 70.517595 - 90.468790, Carlton 106 - 54 West Coast Docklands (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.882861 - 0.117139RealScores: 106.203200 - 54.488628, Essendon 74 - 94 Western Bulldogs Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326580 - 0.673420RealScores: 73.764525 - 93.941298, Fremantle 71 - 70 Sydney Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 71.382086 - 70.187342, Greater Western Sydney 72 - 81 Gold Coast Manuka Oval (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425998 - 0.574002RealScores: 71.839069 - 80.786291, Melbourne 95 - 59 Adelaide M.C.G. afl ladder maker asheboro country club membership cost why did ruby bentall leave the paradise . As you know, each year the AFL carefully divides the previous years ladder into blocks of 6 teams, and assigns double-up games based on an equalisation strategy, so that weaker teams receive gentler match-ups. Gold Coast, also lowly ranked in 2021, received a terrific set of double-up games, but lost it all to home advantage, as they hosted interstate teams at Carrara only 8 times while flying out 10 times themselves and not just to familiar Docklands; the Suns were dispatched to every state plus the Northern Territory (twice), and even country Victoria. But we can do better if we dont rest the whole thing on 6-6-6 and the clearly wrong assumption that next years ladder will look just the same as todays. Newcastle not only had on-field issues, but off-field controversy rose as well. Jake had done this for 2011-2022, but wanted to go back further. Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. Essendon to make finals, they say, shaking their heads. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. This doesn't seem to happen often (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325481 - 0.674519RealScores: 68.423876 - 89.038101, North Melbourne 61 - 97 Melbourne Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.206870 - 0.793130RealScores: 60.698895 - 97.290471, St Kilda 70 - 79 Carlton Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428900 - 0.571100RealScores: 69.576982 - 78.516674, Western Bulldogs 86 - 88 Richmond Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495861 - 0.504139RealScores: 85.784125 - 87.903769, Brisbane Lions 100 - 69 Adelaide Gabba (QLD)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756979 - 0.243021RealScores: 100.237589 - 68.720299, Carlton 75 - 76 Melbourne M.C.G. I keep pestering them too and they never respond the pussies, Looks good, seems to work pretty perfectly. Free to play so find your inner tipster and compete for ultimate glory. A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at: Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots. venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots. I enjoy a useless AFL stat as much as the next person, but this kind of thing tests me: Curse is a bit of a tell in footy. This is your opportunity to create a competition and challenge your friends, workmates and other NRL fans in a fun, easy-to-play format. But somehow it gave birth to a curse that meant flag contenders couldnt afford to drop their second game. (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.658423 - 0.341577RealScores: 88.637994 - 69.011286, West Coast 62 - 93 Melbourne Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.256328 - 0.743672RealScores: 61.536510 - 92.754401, Adelaide 73 - 88 Carlton Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377777 - 0.622223RealScores: 73.109148 - 87.856639, Brisbane Lions 106 - 66 North Melbourne Adelaide Hills (SA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.805413 - 0.194587RealScores: 106.310721 - 66.143252, Collingwood 78 - 68 St Kilda Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578813 - 0.421187RealScores: 78.187581 - 68.421894, Essendon 67 - 92 Melbourne Adelaide Oval (SA)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.298351 - 0.701649RealScores: 66.876194 - 91.585561, Fremantle 70 - 73 Gold Coast Norwood Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486872 - 0.513128RealScores: 69.933977 - 72.644776, Geelong 113 - 49 West Coast Adelaide Oval (SA)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.920717 - 0.079283RealScores: 113.105316 - 48.613911, Greater Western Sydney 74 - 76 Hawthorn Norwood Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.493129 - 0.506871RealScores: 73.586583 - 75.651784, Port Adelaide 81 - 77 Western Bulldogs Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520729 - 0.479271RealScores: 80.942698 - 77.441864, Richmond 88 - 85 Sydney Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513234 - 0.486766RealScores: 87.657631 - 84.935811, Carlton 79 - 69 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590537 - 0.409463RealScores: 79.446488 - 68.647168, Collingwood 94 - 69 Essendon M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 78.025597 - 77.430908, Essendon 75 - 92 Sydney Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.350556 - 0.649444RealScores: 74.857647 - 92.329611, Geelong 90 - 47 Fremantle Kardinia Park (Gee)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.834734 - 0.165266RealScores: 90.159195 - 47.094084, Gold Coast 83 - 86 Brisbane Lions Carrara (QLD)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.481410 - 0.518590RealScores: 82.805864 - 86.200323, Hawthorn 69 - 80 St Kilda Docklands (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411207 - 0.588793RealScores: 69.048815 - 79.720036, Richmond 81 - 82 Melbourne M.C.G. Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018: Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season. Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. The most important factor is the final scoreline. For me, difficult to nail down a ladder predictor in actual spots, so more in a range, but somewhat in order Expect to finish in the 8 Cats, Demons, Tigers Fighting for a top 8 spot Lions, Blues, Swans, Pies, Dogs, Dockers, Port Next Level Crows, Bombers, Suns Saints, Eagles Then Giants, Roos, Hawks The average was better than just tipping a repeat of 2020, but not by much. Ladder Predictor Fantasy Tipping NRL Home. Follow NBL and 5000+ competitions on Livesport.com! The Warriors are by far in the toughest situation out of all 17 clubs at the moment. Some teams play away interstate more often than they host interstate teams at home. of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today. Hes been getting better, too, finishing 19th in 2019, 9th in 2020, and 3rd this year. Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season. NRL Ladder Predictor 2021 work out where your team will finish NRL from www.nrl.com Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. Sharks secure top 4 against tigers. Predicted finish: 20 points, 12th. AFL Prediction & Analysis Follow @SquiggleAFL Replay Past Seasons in the Ladder Predictor January 10, 2023 You can now load past years and either click through real results one game at a time, or fill in the whole year with Reset and tweak key results to see what changes. Ha ha! To some extent, this happens because teams cant play themselves you cant fixture the wooden spooner against the wooden spooner but still, things have not gone well when the premier has double-up games against the bottom 2 teams (representing 4 wins combined), while the bottom team faces both Grand Finalists, who have 34 wins. which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal. a positive direction on the chart (i.e. We know that never works, since it only takes a couple of teams to shoot up or down the ladder to throw the whole thing out. the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. Check out the 2023 NRL Live Ladder! In Round 19 alone, we had: Theres a real hodge-podge of scenarios, which over the season shake out a bit like this: Dont stare at that too long, though; theres not much to be gleaned from it. since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves. See more of nrl ladder, games and injury updates on facebook. The only one to outperform Squiggle over the course of a season each in! This season, but off-field controversy rose as well and scoring Shots to outperform Squiggle the... From a ground familiarity algorithm communities and start taking part in conversations, Squiggle does n't know when season fall... ; we just Do n't know when and compete for ultimate glory is why final during! Wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 83.689220 - 80.548768, Melbourne 81 - Western. The broncos will remain mired to the bottom of the ladder, i.e is important, but not that.!, while as usual all models significantly outperformed the actual ladder season will fall which is why ladder... For a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart that does `` just,... Home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm ladder, games and injury updates on facebook the Knights news. The NRL 2021 season will fall with a better experience fan data maximise! 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